President Sisi in Turkey

Is it a return to strong ties after nearly a decade of coldness?

The recent visit of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to Turkey signifies a pivotal moment in the effort to restore strong ties between Egypt and Turkey after nearly a decade of strained relations. This visit, marking the first presidential-level meeting in 12 years, reciprocates Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s earlier visit to Egypt. The warming of relations is part of a broader normalization process that Turkey initiated in 2020 with the goal of mending ties with regional rivals, including Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.

The historical tension between the two nations dates back to 2013 when Sisi, then Egypt’s defense minister, led a coup to oust President Mohamed Morsi, an ally of Erdogan and a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. This event triggered a significant diplomatic rift, as Turkey refused to recognize Sisi’s government, leading both countries to pursue opposing regional policies.

Recently, both nations have demonstrated a willingness to overcome these differences. The motivations for this rapprochement are multifaceted:

• Economic Interests: Both countries are eager to enhance bilateral trade, with a target of increasing it to $15 billion annually. They have signed multiple agreements to foster cooperation in sectors such as commerce, defense, healthcare, energy, and tourism.
• Regional Stability and Cooperation: The leaders of Egypt and Turkey have expressed a common interest in addressing regional issues, including the conflicts in Gaza and Libya, as well as energy cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean. These shared concerns have encouraged both nations to reevaluate their relationships and seek collaboration instead of competition.
• Strategic and Defense Collaboration: Discussions about potential military cooperation, including the sale of Turkish drones to Egypt, indicate possibilities for a long-term strategic partnership. However, this may complicate relations with other regional dynamics, such as Turkey’s connections with Ethiopia.

In summary, the recent diplomatic engagements and agreements suggest a sincere intent to rebuild and strengthen the relationship between Egypt and Turkey. This new phase in their relations is driven by pragmatic considerations, including economic benefits and regional security interests, signaling a shift from ideological conflicts to a more transactional approach.

The recent thaw in Turkey-Egypt relations can be attributed to several key factors:

1. Economic Interests: Both nations aim to enhance bilateral trade, targeting an increase from the current $10 billion to $15 billion annually. Turkey views Egypt as a vital entry point to Africa and a strategic partner for expanding its economic influence in the region.
2. Regional Stability and Cooperation: Turkey and Egypt share common interests in addressing regional challenges, including the conflicts in Gaza and Libya, as well as energy collaboration in the Eastern Mediterranean. This shared perspective has encouraged both countries to reassess their relationship and pursue cooperation over competition.
3. Pragmatic Foreign Policy Shift: Since 2020-2021, Turkey has shifted to a more pragmatic and transactional foreign policy, prioritizing trade, commerce, and investment opportunities instead of supporting specific political causes.
4. Geopolitical Realities: The evolving dynamics in the Middle East, marked by a decline in U.S. influence and the emergence of a multipolar world, have motivated both countries to strengthen their regional partnerships.
5. Mutual Strategic Benefits: Egypt stands to gain from Turkey’s advanced defense technologies, including potential drone sales, while Turkey benefits from Egypt’s strategic position and regional clout.
6. Gaza Conflict: The ongoing situation in Gaza has underscored the necessity for regional collaboration, as both countries hold similar stances and wish to play significant roles in negotiations and humanitarian efforts.
7. Diplomatic Efforts: Since 2021, both countries have conducted multiple rounds of talks and high-level visits, gradually normalizing relations and rebuilding trust.
8. Economic Challenges: Egypt’s struggling economy has made it more receptive to improving ties with Turkey, a regional economic powerhouse, to attract investments and stimulate trade.
9. Balancing Regional Alliances: Egypt perceives rapprochement with Turkey as a means of diversifying its regional partnerships, particularly in light of existing tensions with some Gulf allies.

These factors together have fostered the warming of relations between Turkey and Egypt, culminating in recent high-level visits and agreements between the two nations.

Several key issues must be resolved to achieve full normalization between Turkey and Egypt:

1. Regional Conflicts and Alignments:
   • The situation in Libya remains contentious, as Turkey and Egypt have historically supported opposing factions. Identifying common ground on Libya’s political fragmentation is essential for sustained cooperation.
   • Further alignment may be necessary on differing approaches to regional issues such as Syria and Palestine.
2. Eastern Mediterranean Disputes:
   • Maritime border delimitation and gas exploration rights in the Eastern Mediterranean pose significant challenges.
   • Turkey’s exclusion from the East-Med Gas Forum, established by Egypt, is an issue that needs resolution.
3. The Muslim Brotherhood and Political Opposition:
   • Egypt’s concerns regarding Turkey’s past support for the Muslim Brotherhood and its hosting of Egyptian opposition figures require careful attention.
   • Turkey may need to take additional steps to restrict the activities of Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated media operating from its territory.
4. Economic Cooperation:
   • Both countries aim to increase bilateral trade to $15 billion annually, but concrete steps and agreements must be implemented to reach this target.
5. Military and Security Cooperation:
   • Establishing mutually beneficial defense and security partnerships, which could include potential arms sales, such as Turkish drones to Egypt, is important.
6. Diplomatic Representation:
   • Fully restoring diplomatic relations to the ambassadorial level and ensuring consistent high-level dialogue is crucial for rebuilding trust.
7. Public Perception and Rhetoric:
   • Overcoming years of negative rhetoric and public sentiment in both nations is vital for fostering lasting trust and cooperation.
8. Balancing Regional Alliances:
   • Navigating complex regional relationships, including Egypt’s ties with Gulf countries and Turkey’s relations with other regional powers, will require careful diplomacy.
9. Cooperation in International Forums:
   • Aligning positions on international issues and supporting each other in multilateral organizations can strengthen ties between Turkey and Egypt.

Addressing these issues will necessitate ongoing diplomatic efforts, compromises, and a focus on mutual interests to achieve full normalization between Turkey and Egypt.